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Washington, 21.05.2010, 07:11

Experts: Neither Iran's consent for uranium exchange, no new sanctions of West would lead to constructive decision

Although Iran signed an agreement on exchange of uranium on the territory of Turkey and despite the ongoing discussions on the UN Security Council resolution on Iran, it is unworthy to expect a constructive solution to the Iranian nuclear problem, experts say. "On both sides these manoeuvres are camouflage, Philip Carl Salzman, professor of Anthropology at McGill University, wrote in an e-mail to TN. For their part, the Iranians have no intentions of changing course, which is full speed ahead for gaining regional and international power. Their proposals and offers are simply intending to obstruct any serious pressure against them." Despite that Iran, Turkey and Brazil have reached a trilateral agreement on uranium exchange, according to which the exchange of Tehran's 1,200 kg of enriched uranium with 120 kg of highly enriched fuel will be carried out in Turkish territory, the UN Security Council permanent members continue to discuss the new draft resolution on Iran . On Tuesday a closed meeting at the headquarters of the Organization in New York discussed a UN Security Council draft resolution on Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that five members of the UN Security Council with the veto power have agreed to adopt the draft resolution, which requires more stringent penalties against the Islamic Republic in connection with its intention to continue work on uranium enrichment. The ten-page document envisages inspections of cargo vessels and the resumption of control over money transfers involving Iranian banks. In addition, the new resolution will include the expansion of already existing list of weapons banned to be sold to Iran. Salzman said that for their part, the U.S., and especially Russia and China, propose, discuss, and may even decide on some weak and meaningless sanctions, in order to obscure the fact that they have no intention of engaging in any serious measures to stop Iran's nuclear weapon program. Russia and China, who previously opposed the introduction of new tough measures against Iran and urged a diplomatic solution, joined the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany in their support for the IAEA resolution, insisting, however, on conducting a "dual path" strategy for Iran, involving the combination of sanctions and negotiations. "So it is all a shadow play, with no substance behind it. No resolution will come from it, no happy result. We shall all pay for this later," Salzman said. Shahram Akbarzadeh, Deputy Director of National Centre of Excellence for Islamic Studies at the University of Melbourne, said that the Iranian behaviour reminds me of the politics of brinkmanship that Saddam Hussein was following until his very last day. "Iranian leadership is trying to torpedo the US push for greater UN sanctions by driving a wedge between Russia/China and the US, Akbarzadeh wrote in an e-mail to TN. The uranium transfer deal was aimed at presenting the international community with 'new realities', timed to coincide with UN discussions for further sanctions". According to the expert, this could have the desired

Experts...

effect for Iran. "But even if it does not, and if fresh UN sanctions are imposed, it is highly unlikely that sanctions will have any serious effect on the behaviour of the Iranian regime. Iran has lived with sanctions for 30 years - further sanctions will only serve the paranoia in Iran that the international community is at the service of the United States. This will serve the hardliners - and allow them to mobilise their supporters and suppress reformist elements in Iran," Akbarzadeh said. So far, the UN Security Council, where in 2006 the IAEA sent Iran's nuclear dossier, has adopted five resolutions to suspend Iran's nuclear program, three of which envisage economic and some political sanctions against Iran. Professor of anthropology at the University of Washington Robert Canfield also believes that the Iranian nuclear program is firstly necessary for the Iranian government, since it is the only opportunity for it to gain public support. "I don't believe the Iranian government will abandon their practice of enriching uranium. This is a very unpopular government, as you know, Canfield told TN via e-mail. The one thing they are doing that many Iranians support is enruch uranium in order to, as they claim, develop a nuclear power industry. If they are ever to have popular support they must continue with that program."

Washington, 21.05.2010, 01:07

Gates says Iran sanctions could work

The U.S. introduced a resolution this week calling for a series of economic and trade restrictions related to Iran's nuclear and weapons programs, after winning support from China and Russia. The U.N. has imposed three previous rounds of sanctions, but that has not kept Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The U.S. fears that Iran's programs could one day lead to development of atomic weapons. Gates said Thursday that if Iran felt it could ignore the latest sanctions, "I don't think you'd seem them expending the kinds of diplomatic and other kinds of energy to try to prevent its passage."